By Matt Fotia
It’s getting tense now after Round 11 gave us up one surprise result and teased a couple of others.
The race for the top two is all but done, while fourth place is the Lightning’s to lose.
Take a look at the run home below.
Melbourne Vixens (40pts, 116.1 %)
Current ladder position: 1st
To come:
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
The Vixens are looking unstoppable at the moment.
The 2022 runners up won every quarter against the Swifts on Sunday as they ran away 20 goal winners in front of a packed John Cain Arena.
The big win gave their percentage a boost and gave them a two-game buffer at the top of the ladder.
The Vixens still need to win two of their last three games to guarantee top spot but given the away form of the Fever and the ruthlessness of the Vixens, that shouldn’t be an issue.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (32pts, 122.3%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Another week, another thumping Thunderbirds win.
The Adelaide outfit put the Mavericks to the sword in the second half to win another game in convincing style and leapfrog the Fever into second spot on the ladder.
The supercomputer doesn’t have the Thunderbirds losing another home and away game this season, but even if they were to go down to the Vixens this weekend, they should still claim the double chance with wins over the Swifts and Lightning, such is their percentage.
West Coast Fever (32pts, 110.7%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
To come:
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
There are no easy games in the Suncorp Super Netball league.
The Firebirds emotion fuelled win over the Fever brought a smile to a lot of neutral netball fans faces, but the Fever faithful were left frowning.
The eight-goal loss to the Firebirds means the Fever’s chances of claiming a top two spot is now out of their control.
Not only will they need to win all three of their remaining games, but they’ll also need the Vixens to beat the Thunderbirds in Adelaide this weekend to finish a game clear of the Thunderbirds.
If the Vixens beat the Thunderbirds but the Fever lose to the Vixens in Round 13, the Thunderbirds superior percentage should be enough to lock away second spot.
Finally, if the Thunderbirds beat the Vixens and the Fever do the same, all three sides will be locked on 44 points apiece, with the Fever still likely to finish third on percentage.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (20pts, 100%)
Current ladder position: 4th
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Away)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
The Lightning bid goodbye to UniSC Arena on Sunday evening with a hard fought win over the GIANTS, led by the performances of Liz Watson, Steph Fretwell and Ash Ervin.
The win was uber-important for the Lightning, as it moved them a game and 11.17& clear of the Mavericks in 5th, giving the Lightning the opportunity to bury the Mavericks finals push this weekend.
The Lightning could get away with winning just one of their three remaining games but would risk opening the door for the Mavericks in doing so.
Melbourne Mavericks (16pts, 92.8%)
Current ladder position: 5th
To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
It’s tough from here for the new kids on the block.
The loss to the Thunderbirds on Saturday has left Tracey Neville’s side with a mountain to climb in their quest for finals netball.
They have three paths to knockout netball.
Path A is simplistic. Win all three of your remaining games and hope the Thunderbirds do the business of the Lightning in Round 14.
Path B is a little more complicated. The Mavericks would need to beat the Lightning and the GIANTS by enough to create a 12% swing on their Sunshine Coast counterparts and hope the Lightning lose to Thunderbirds.
Path C involves the Lightning losing all three of their remaining fixtures and while it’s the simplest route on paper, we highly doubt it’ll pop up in conversation at Mavs HQ this weekend.
NSW Swifts (12pts, 92.5%)
Current ladder position: 6th
To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
Mathematically it’s still possible, but even the Supercomputer doesn’t want to take up that much of your time explaining how.
Finals will be the furthest thing from the Swifts minds at the moment.
They’ll be thinking about getting some cohesion back in their netball and putting some smiles back on their supporters faces to finish 2024.
Queensland Firebirds (12pts, 91.2%)
Current ladder position: 7th
To come:
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
What a win.
It’s been a rough fortnight or so for the Firebirds and only the most ardent of West Coast Fever fans would have begrudged them their moment on Saturday afternoon.
Like the Swifts they are still mathematically a chance of playing finals and like the Swifts they won’t be thinking about it at all.
What they will be thinking about is how they can take this momentum into 2025 and beyond.
They’ll fancy their chances against the Swifts this weekend (the Supercomputer does too) and will be keen to derail their Queensland rivals charge towards finals the week after.
It’s funny what freedom can do.
GIANTS (12pts, 86%)
Current ladder position: 8th
To come:
West Coast Fever (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
NSW Swifts (Home)
The fact that the GIANTS were just a couple of Super Shots away from being right in the mix for the top four shows how close this season has really been.
Alas, the GIANTS were unable to capitalise in the last quarter of their clash with the Lightning and are now sitting in 8th wondering what went wrong in 2024.
Julie Fitzgerald’s side know their best netball is more than competitive and will be eyeing off their final two games against the Mavericks and the Swifts keenly as they look to finish the year off on a high.
Predicted Ladder
1. Melbourne Vixens – 48 points, 114.1%
2. Adelaide Thunderbirds – 44 points, 121.8%
3. West Coast Fever – 40 points, 109.9%
4. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 24 points, 98.9%
5. Melbourne Mavericks – 24 points, 92.8%
6. Queensland Firebirds – 16 points, 91.7%
7. GIANTS Netball – 16 points, 88%
8. NSW Swifts – 12 points, 90.7%
Predicted first week of finals
Major Semi Final
Melbourne Vixens v Adelaide Thunderbirds
Minor Semi Final
West Coast Fever v Sunshine Coast Lightning