By Paddy Regester
It’s hard to believe that, with just two more rounds of the 2022 regular season remaining we still have no idea who will be playing finals netball.
We haven’t crowned a minor premier and we haven’t added a wooden spoon to one of our club’s cutlery drawers. We don’t have a second, or third and we most definitely don’t have a clear fourth.
It’s bedlam. It’s high drama. It’s sport at its unpredictable best.
The path to finals netball in 2022 is clear for our eight teams, although some of those paths are more like hikes.
Melbourne Vixens
Let’s start with one of the easier scenarios in the ladder equation, the Melbourne Vixens and their quest for the Super Netball minor premiership.
And it’s as simple as win or draw against either the Thunderbirds in Adelaide this Saturday night or win the Latte Cup against the Magpies on the Queen’s Birthday public holiday in Round 14.
The 2020 premiers have a handy eight-point lead over the second placed Fever, but that might not be enough if West Coast win-out and Melbourne can’t muster a win or draw in Round 13 or 14.
Anything can happen in netball, especially in this unpredictable season, but I'm backing the Vixens to take care of business at least one more time this regular season.
West Coast Fever
The Fever are sitting pretty at second and will have their eyes set firmly on the first placed Vixens, who they trail by eight points.
While it sounds unlikely, the minor-premiership is still in reach for the Fever, but a lot needs to go right.
Obviously, nothing but wins will do from here on out. That’s what they can control. Beat the Swifts on Sunday then knock off the Thunderbirds at home to finish the regular season. They have a big percentage lead over Melbourne right now, so drawing level should see them finish on top.
What they can’t control are the Vixens. A win or draw in Round 13 or 14 for Melbourne and the major semi-final will be played at John Cain Arena.
But, there is another scenario for the Fever, and it’s one West Coast fans won’t like. The third placed GIANTS jump them.
GIANTS Netball
There will be two things on the minds of the GIANTS with two regular season rounds to go.
First and foremost, lock-up a spot in the top four with a win over the Firebirds tomorrow or over the Lightning in Round 14. Would anyone be surprised if one or two of the four sides currently sitting on 20-premiership points win both remaining games and bundle the GIANTS out of the top four?
Then do everything they can to pinch second place off the Fever. Two wins to close the season and a rough finish for West Coast and they give themselves a chance to play in the major semi-final.
It’ll take more than just equalling the Fever in premiership points for the GIANTS to finish second. West Coast hold a significant percentage lead over the GIANTS, so the Sydney-siders are going to have to hand out a few beltings to finish the season.
Is it likely they can make up almost 9% in two rounds? Not really. Will it be fun to watch if they do? Not for Firebirds and Lightning fans.
Queensland Firebirds
Now things start to get really interesting.
Four teams are locked at five wins and seven losses for the season, but it’s the Firebirds who currently sit at fourth on the ladder thanks to their healthy percentage.
One win won’t necessarily be enough to see the Firebirds play finals for the first time since 2018, because they’ll have to keep pace with three other desperate teams with the exact same plan of attack in Rounds 13 and 14.
If the Firebirds end up playing finals this season, they will have well-and-truly earned it. Get weird with me for a second…
Queensland send a message to the rest of the league in Round 13 with a massive home win over the third placed GIANTS. All the stars fire in the season defining victory, but it’s Eboni Usoro-Brown and Ruby Bakewell-Doran’s shutdown job on the GIANTS potent attack end that seals the victory.
Their romp through the NSW franchises continues in Round 14, with another big win at KRA against the Swifts. This begins a four-game road win streak, that finishes in Perth on July 3. The streak is forever known as “The month the Birds flew the coop” and is immortalised with a bronze statue installed on the Brisbane Townhall steps of Gretel Bueta and Donnell Wallam embracing in mid-air. Head Coach Megan Anderson is awarded the key to the city and lights the Olympic Torch in 2032, a Queensland and Australian sporting hero.
You never know.
Adelaide Thunderbirds
Only the coldest of hearts would fail to be thawed if the Thunderbirds were able to finish in the top four this season. It would be their first trip to the finals in Super Netball history, and their first post-season netball game since 2013.
So how does it happen for the fifth placed Thunderbirds?
It starts with a huge upset at the Adelaide Entertainment Centre over the top of the table Melbourne Vixens tomorrow night. That would put them on 24-points and right in the thick of it, riding a wave of confidence coming into the final regular season round.
It doesn’t get any easier in Round 14, with a trip to Perth to take on the Fever next Sunday.
If they can finish the season with 28 premiership points, not only will they be right there in the battle for a spot in the minor semi-final, they’ll be overflowing with confidence after knocking-off the top two sides in the comp.
If you look at the fixtures for the four sides locked at 20 premiership points, there’s no denying the Thunderbirds have the toughest path to the top four.
But what a story we’ll have on our hands if they pull it off.
NSW Swifts
If you had of told me after Round 1 that the NSW Swifts would still be in the hunt to finish as high as third with two rounds to go, I would have assumed you’d never followed a season of Super Netball before.
Not because the Swifts are a one-player team, they don’t win that 2021 Premiership without being a complete team, but because of who they lost.
I’m of course talking about Sam Wallace, who tore her ACL in Round 1 this season. Wallace is one of the best players in the world right now, and it has taken every player on the list stepping up to put them in this position.
Now it’s time to pull off the miraculous.
A win at home this Sunday keeps them in the hunt, then a showdown with the Firebirds at KRA could become a win-and-you’re-in game for both sides to finish the regular season.
Neither of those wins are going to come easy. The Fever have a battle on their hands to secure a spot in the major semi and the Firebirds will be just as desperate for a win to end the season as the Swifts.
It’ll be tough, but you can never really write off the reigning champs until it’s all over.
Collingwood Magpies
The lowest of our four sides locked on 20-points is the Collingwood Magpies. But, call me crazy, the Magpies feel like they are in the best position to lockup a spot in the top four.
They travel to the Sunshine Coast to take on the last placed Lightning this weekend, a game Collingwood should go into as favourites to win. It’s no gimme though, as the Lightning will be desperate to keep their slim hopes of finishing in the top four alive.
After that, they host the Melbourne Vixens at John Cain Arena on the Queen’s Birthday public holiday, in a regular season finisher eerily similar to 2019 closer.
In that game, the Vixens had already locked up third place while the Magpies were on the outside looking in, trailing the fourth placed GIANTS by four points and percentage. The Magpies stunned the Vixens and their 11-point win was enough to put them .42% higher than the GIANTS. Wild.
The Pies tend to bring their A-game in these derby matches and have proven that they can produce their best work when the season is on the line.
Imagine, a big road win this weekend and the completion of a season sweep of the cross-town rivals to lock-up a finals birth in Round 14… now that’s how you finish the season.
Sunshine Coast Lightning
You know it’s tight when there’s two matches to go and the eighth placed side is still mathematically able to make the finals.
And that’s exactly where we are with the Lightning in 2022. Unfortunately, they are at the mercy of those above them.
With just 16 premiership points, wins over the Magpies and GIANTS in Round 13 and 14 would see them finish with 24 points, the same as the third placed GIANTS are on right now. That’s the goal. One loss in the next two games and the Lightning are done.
What they can’t control is the results in the other matches.
As we’ve discussed above, a GIANTS win or draw would mean fourth is as high as the Lightning could go. If any of the Magpies, Swifts, Thunderbirds and Firebirds were to win in Rounds 13 or 14, the Lightning would have to explode offensively in their two hypothetical wins to lift their league-low 92.02 percentage. And, if any of those sides were to amass six or more premiership points over the next two matches, the Lightning would be done.
It would be an unbelievable story if the Lightning were to pull it off, but so much has to go right. If the 2022 dream is over for the Lightning, that would end their streak as the only team to play in every finals series in the Super Netball era.
