We’ve finally reached the big one!
It all comes down to those 60 minutes on Sunday as the Sunshine Coast Lightning take on the NSW Swifts – two teams that have clearly been the best in Suncorp Super Netball all season.
Having looked at the Nissan Net Points all year, to me it’s not surprising we’ve got a Lightning and Swifts grand final. As a team, after 14 rounds the Lightning amassed 5655 Net Points – the most of any team in the league – while the Swifts were second on 5197.
No other team was even close to 5000, so it just goes to show that if you’re strong statistically through Net Points, chances are you’ll be going deep in finals.
What’s been interesting, though, is how each team’s different strengths have helped them get there.
For the Lightning, it’s all about those defensive gains, with their 222 gains leading the league in the home and away season, and killing the Swifts’ 153. Considering intercepts are worth 10 Nissan Net Points, that’s a big chunk of their score right there.
The Swifts, on the other hand, rack up big scores largely by treasuring possession. With each bad pass or dropped ball costing players and teams big points, their 296 general play turnovers (40 less than any other team and 47 less than the Lightning) and ability to keep hold of the ball has meant they’ve just worn teams down.
MY KEY MATCHUPS
So much of what happens on Sunday will come down to how Helen Housby plays on Karla Pretorius. Pretorius has had a field day against the Swifts this year, averaging 80.7 Nissan Net Points in their three clashes so far – well above her already massive season average of 71.7. Housby, on the other hand, has averaged 62.5 against the Lightning, almost 11 points below her season average. For Housby, it’s not just about scoring goals, it’s about keeping Pretorius busy and accountable so she can’t have the influence she usually does.
I’ve written a few times in recent weeks about just how important a good Paige Hadley performance is to the Swifts’ chances, and nothing changes this week. Hadley has really struggled against the Lightning in 2019, with her 49.2 Net Points average well below her season average of 70. Langman had 84.5 Net Points in the semi-final and was best on court, so Hadley will need to stay composed, disciplined and try to keep Langman out of the action as much as she can, while also having a blinder in the attack end.
MY GAME BREAKER
The Lightning certainly got the better of Swifts shooter Sam Wallace in the semi-final. Wallace had a shocker and finished with -5 Net Points.
Sophie Garbin, meanwhile, matches up exceptionally well against the Sunshine Coast. In the semi-final she had a team-leading 65 Net Points despite being on court for less than a half. And in Round 11 she collected 61 Net Points at goal attack – the second-highest score for her team on the day.
I think the Swifts will stick with Wallace as their starter, but if things aren’t working early, I’d be turning straight to Garbin, as the Lightning find it more difficult to shut the Swifts down consistently when they have two moving goalers.
Put Garbin down as my grand final game breaker!
THE VERDICT
Finals can do funny things, but for someone who always loved their stats as a player, I reckon Nissan Net Points tell us a lot.
When these two teams face off the Lightning have higher-scoring starting players at goal defence (Pretorius), centre (Langman), wing attack (Scherian) and goal shooter (Koenen).
That’s four Lightning starters who consistently have more impact than their opposition, and three of them work together in the attack end.
I think the Lightning will be too strong, but like I said, finals can do funny things, and I’d love to see the Swifties get over the line!
