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The Run Home from Round 10

18 JUN 2024

ssn 2024 Round 10

Take a deeper look at your teams' charge to the Suncorp Super Netball finals.

By Matt Fotia

10 weeks down. Four more to go.

Just a month of regular season action remains in season 2024 and the finals picture is slowly becoming clearer.

Three sides are locked in for post season action but will jostle for pole position until the final whistle, and four sides – sorry Firebirds fans – are stuck in a battle it for fourth spot.

Take a look at the Run Home below.

Melbourne Vixens (36pts, 113.9%)
Current ladder position: 1st

To come:
NSW Swifts (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)

A huge win on the weekend for the Vixens. The win keeps them a game clear on top of the ladder and was actually a game the supercomputer had them losing.

They still have a tricky run home with games against the other two contenders in the Thunderbirds and Fever. Win at least one of those fixtures and they’ll lock in a top two spot. Win both and they’ll head into the finals as overwhelming favourites.

They’ll still be keen to getting closer to full fitness sooner rather than later, but nonetheless they’ve set themselves up perfectly with a month to go.

West Coast Fever (32pts, 113.3%)
Current ladder position: 2nd

To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)

The Fever got back on track on Sunday afternoon with a high-scoring win over the Swifts but will be frustrated that they weren’t able to maintain their double-digit advantage right to the end, with percentage a possible deciding factor in the race for the top two.

Dan Ryan’s side is still in a very strong position and can eat away at the Thunderbirds’ percentage advantage over the next fortnight with games against the bottom two. This weekend is a big watch on that front given the Fever’s recent history of putting up big scores against the Firebirds.

Of course, should they beat the Vixens in Round 13, all of this percentage chat is null and void as they’ll finish a game clear on top and will host the Major Semi Final.

The Fever players hi-five — The Fever can pinch top spot with a win over the Vixens in Round 13

Adelaide Thunderbirds (28pts, 118.9%)
Current ladder position: 3rd

To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)

Another week, another Thunderbirds defensive masterclass.

Tania Obst’s side completed another shut-out on Saturday afternoon and continued to do their premiership chances no harm.

However, the Vixens’ win over the Lightning does mean they’ll need a lot to go their way to finish in pole position.

The reigning premiers will need the following to happen to claim top spot:

- Win the rest of their games

- Fever defeat Vixens in Round 13

- Fever lose to one of the Firebirds, GIANTS or Mavericks

It’s much more likely that they’ll finish neck and neck with either the Fever or the Vixens in the race for second with percentage the deciding factor.

Sunshine Coast Lightning (16pts, 99.3%)
Current ladder position: 4th

To come:
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Mavericks (Away)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)

The weekend’s tight loss to the Vixens will sting the Lightning for a couple of reasons.

Not only was it a missed opportunity to send a message to the rest of the competition, but they’ve also added some extra tension to their final month of netball.

The Mavericks have now pulled level on points with the Lightning and will be keen to welcome the Queensland based club to sunny Hobart in a fortnight, in what is shaping as a quasi-final.

The Lightning do have a sizeable percentage gap on the Mavericks, something that could come in handy on the final day of the season.

The Lightning will be keen to push home that advantage in games against the GIANTS and Firebirds either side of that crucial clash in Tasmania.

Melbourne Mavericks (16pts, 92.8%)
Current ladder position: 5th

To come:
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)

A decent weekend for Mavericks fans.

They ran out convincing winners against the Queensland Firebirds in their last game at John Cain Arena for the season, but the Sunshine Coast Lightning also lost bringing them right back into finals contention.

The Mavericks simply must beat the Lightning in Round 12 if they’re to be any chance of finishing in the top four this season.

A win there will then leave them with two options.

Overcome the Lightning’s percentage or knock off either the Thunderbirds this weekend or the Fever in Round 14.

Gabby Sinclair looks to pass to Shimona Jok — The Mavericks could mount a surprise charge for the finals

NSW Swifts (12pts, 94.7%)
Current ladder position: 6th

To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Queensland Firebirds (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)

For the second week in a row a flurry of late Suncorp Super Shots helped cut the margin for the NSW Swifts, but they’re still without a win since Round 6.

Yet still they remain a chance – a 9% chance according to the supercomputer – to play finals in 2024.

To do so they’ll need to bank wins against the Firebirds and GIANTS – games they will enter as favourites – and pinch a win against either the Vixens or Thunderbirds – games they will not enter as favourites – and hope things fall their way elsewhere in regard to percentage.

GIANTS (12pts, 86%)
Current ladder position: 7th

To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away)
West Coast Fever (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
NSW Swifts (Home)

The GIANTS couldn’t get it done in Julie Fitzgerald’s 400th game, falling victim to the Thunderbirds’ relentless defensive system.

The loss leaves them in a slightly worse spot to their local rivals.

Given their percentage is currently 13% less than that of the Lightning, the GIANTS would likely need to win all of their remaining fixtures to clinch a finals spot.

Queensland Firebirds (8pts, 89.2%)
Current ladder position: 8th

To come:
West Coast Fever (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)

It has been a tough few days for the Firebirds and the finish line couldn’t come quick enough.

While they’re a less than 1% chance of playing finals in 2024 they do have a chance to influence who will, with games against three of the current top four to come.

Wins against either one of the Vixens, Fever or Lightning would throw a – massive – cat amongst the pigeons and put the supercomputer in a spin.