By Matt Fotia
One weekend of regular season remains, and still the finals picture is unclear.
The Mavericks' one goal win momentarily put the competition newcomers into the top four, while the Fever’s nail-biting victory over the Vixens has put the permutations department into overtime, as the green machine eye an unlikely top two finish.
Take a look at the final run home of 2024 below.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (40pts, 122.9%)
Current ladder position: 1st
Chance of a top two finish: 83%
To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Timing your run is an underrated aspect of championship winning sides and this iteration of the Thunderbirds are timing it to perfection.
The 2023 premiers won their fifth straight game on Sunday afternoon, claiming top spot on the ladder in the process following a minor upset at John Cain Arena.
There is a strong possibility that the Thunderbirds will not have to leave Adelaide for the remainder of the season, with a win over the Lightning all but guaranteeing them the minor premiership and home semi final.
Despite their strong percentage the Thunderbirds can still miss the top two.
If the Fever and Vixens both win their games against the Mavericks and Firebirds and the Thunderbirds lose to the Lightning, they’ll finish in third spot and will host the Minor Semi Final.
Melbourne Vixens (40pts, 111%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
Chance of a top two finish: 71%
To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
A fortnight is a long time in netball.
The Vixens looked rusted on to take out the minor premiership but losses to the Thunderbirds and Fever have left them in a straight shootout with the Fever for the double chance.
The Vixens should defeat the Firebirds on Saturday but are disadvantaged somewhat by being the first game of the round, allowing the Fever to head into their fixture against the Mavericks with a clear blueprint of what is required to overtake their rivals.
It’s highly doubtful Simone McKinnis will be bringing up maths this week at training though. After two losses to fellow premiership contenders, the Vixens will be desperate to head into the finals off the back of a win, with any percentage boost an added bonus.
The Fever are a chance of taking out top spotWest Coast Fever (40pts, 109.5%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
Chance of a top two finish: 45%
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
A decent weekend for Fever fans, as their sharp shooting grabbed them a massive one-goal win over the Vixens in front of a vocal John Cain Arena crowd.
The win has opened the door for a late top two push from last year's preliminary finalists, who have the benefit of playing after the Vixens on Saturday.
Dan Ryan’s side will enter Saturday’s game against the Mavericks knowing exactly what they need to do to overtake the Vixens on the ladder, whether it be as simple as just getting the win, or a more complicated ‘win by this many’ situation.
Sunshine Coast Lightning (24pts, 101.7%)
Current ladder position: 4th
Chance of playing finals: 75%
To come:
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
A statement win from the Lightning on Saturday.
Faced with an in-form rival, who were playing the freedom only rock bottom can bring, and the real possibility that a loss would see them slide out of the top four, the Lightning produced a four-quarter performance to finish 16-goal winners.
In a worrying sign for the top three, the Lightning shot the lights out, finishing with a season high 83 goals, off the back of Cara Koenen’s 55 goals.
The win now means the Mavericks (more or less) must win to overtake the Lightning, as Belinda Reynolds' side extended their percentage gap to over 10 per cent with Saturday’s thumping win.
The Lightning, like the Fever, have the benefit of playing after their closest rivals and will know exactly what is required of them before they hit the court.
Melbourne Mavericks (24pts, 91.6%)
Current ladder position: 5th
Chance of playing finals: 25%
To come:
West Coast Fever (Home)
They don’t do things the easy way the Mavericks.
Tracey Neville’s side managed back-to-back wins for the first time in their history on Saturday, once again coming from behind late to steal another one-goal victory.
Their panache for heart stopping victories is great for theatre, but not so great for their percentage.
To make finals the Mavericks must defeat the Fever at RAC Arena on Saturday afternoon, before crowding around the TV to find out whether the Lightning can upset the Thunderbirds.
Lose and they’ll need an actual miracle to fall into finals.
The Mavericks would need an actual miracle to make finals if they were to lose on SaturdayQueensland Firebirds (16pts, 90.9%)
Current ladder position: 6th
To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
The Firebirds unlikely finals charge came to an almighty halt on Saturday night, as they went down convincingly to an inspired Sunshine Coast side.
The Queensland outfit still have a major part to play in the finals story.
If they can hand the Vixens their third straight defeat this weekend, they’ll make the state of Western Australia happy, but even a tight loss will keep the green army happy, opening the door for a percentage-based Fever push.
NSW Swifts (12pts, 92%)
Current ladder position: 7th
To come:
GIANTS (Away)
Pride is on the line for both New South Wales sides.
The winner will not only get bragging rights but will also avoid the dreaded wooden spoon.
GIANTS (12pts, 88.1%)
Current ladder position: 8th
To come:
NSW Swifts (Home)
See above.
Predicted Ladder
1. Adelaide Thunderbirds – 44 points, 122.6%
2. Melbourne Vixens – 44 points, 111.6%
3. West Coast Fever – 44 points, 111.2%
4. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 24 points, 101.7%
5. Melbourne Mavericks – 24 points, 91%
6. Queensland Firebirds – 16 points, 90.5%
7. GIANTS Netball – 16 points, 89.7%
8. NSW Swifts – 12 points, 91.4%
Predicted first week of finals.
Major Semi Final
Adelaide Thunderbirds v Melbourne Vixens
Minor Semi Final
West Coast Fever v Sunshine Coast Lightning
