By Matt Fotia
With just five rounds of the 2024 Suncorp Super Netball season to go every club is still (mathematically) a chance to play finals.
Take a deep dive into each team’s finals chances, along with our predicted ladder, as we round the final bend and head for home in another enthralling race for premiership glory.
Melbourne Vixens (32pts, 115.2%)
Current ladder position: 1st
To come:
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away)
NSW Swifts (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Round 9 played out almost perfectly for the Vixens, who reclaimed top spot thanks to a convincing victory over crosstown rivals the Mavericks, coupled with the Fever’s resounding loss to the Thunderbirds.
The Vixens look certain to wrap up a top two spot and the double chance in 2024, but face a tricky month of fixtures ahead, which could be made even tricker as they await news on defender Rudi Ellis who went down late in Monday’s win.
If they can bank their home game against the faltering Swifts and their round 14 fixture against the lowly Firebirds, the Vixens will need just one win from their games against the Lightning, the Thunderbirds, and the Fever to end up on 11 wins, which would see them more than likely grab a double chance, barring the Thunderbirds going undefeated for the remainder of the season.
West Coast Fever (28pts, 113.7%)
Current ladder position: 2nd
To come:
NSW Swifts (Home)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
It wasn't exactly the trip across the Nullarbor that Dan Ryan and co had planned, as the Fever were kept to their lowest score in more than three years by the reigning premiers. The loss meant they relinquished their grip on top spot in the process.
The Fever have looked a little wobbly over the past three weeks but will be buoyed by a relatively easy run home, given they play each of the current four bottom sides.
Given their tendency to put lesser sides to the sword, there should be no questions about the Fever making the top two, with their round 13 match up against the Vixens looming as a possible playoff for top spot at this stage.
Adelaide Thunderbirds (24pts, 117.3%)
Current ladder position: 3rd
To come:
GIANTS (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Bounce back central for Tania Obst’s Thunderbirds on Saturday night, with the reigning premiers flexing their muscles and sending a gentle reminder to the rest of the competition.
The win was super important for the Thunderbirds' finals aspirations as well, with their remaining five fixtures filled with possible banana skins and big games. Their victory on Saturday night solidified their finals spot for 2024.
They should bank another two wins over the next fortnight before a tough finish to the season, but a loss in either of those games will make it nigh on impossible for them to steal the double chance.
Their best chance of finishing top two is to win all their remaining fixtures and hope the Vixens drop a game to the Lightning or Fever, which would mean both sides finish on 44 points and bring the Thunderbirds superior percentage into play.
The Thunderbirds strong percentage could come in handySunshine Coast Lightning (16pts, 99.5%)
Current ladder position: 4th
To come:
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
GIANTS (Home)
Melbourne Mavericks (Away)
Queensland Firebirds (Away)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
A flurry of Swifts super shots may have dampened their win on Saturday afternoon, but the four points were the only thing that mattered to Belinda Reynolds’ side as they broke a game free of the chasing pack inside the top four.
Courtney Bruce’s return to the side, albeit on managed minutes, will send shivers down their remaining opponent’s spine, as the heavy pre-season favourites look to find their groove.
They will fancy their chances against the Vixens on their home court, especially after they defeated the ladder leaders back in round six and follow that fixture with three very winnable matches against the GIANTS, Mavericks, and Firebirds.
The Lightning are still the most mathematical of chances to claim a top two spot, but given their percentage is still less than 100, they're likely focused on banking those three winnable fixtures and making it hard for the GIANTS, Mavericks, and Swifts to steal fourth place.
NSW Swifts (12pts, 95.2%)
Current ladder position: 5th
To come:
West Coast Fever (Away)
Melbourne Vixens (Away)
Queensland Firebirds (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
A tough loss for the Swifts on Saturday evening. It’s made worse by looking at their next month of games.
The 2023 runners up will jet across the country to take on the Fever in Perth, before another road trip, this time to John Cain Arena to battle a slick (bun) looking Vixens outfit.
They finish the season with fixtures against the Thunderbirds who kept them to just 33 goals a few weeks ago and a GIANTS side who are tracking in an upwards direction.
They should have enough to put away the Firebirds in between, but it’s not looking good for the 2021 premiers.
Melbourne Mavericks (12pts, 90%)
Current ladder position: 6th
To come:
Queensland Firebirds (Home)
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
GIANTS (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
Mathematically they’re still in this finals race.
Assuming they win their two winnable fixtures against the Firebirds and the GIANTS (both of which are sure things), the Mavericks would then need to repeat their heroics against the Lightning in Round 12 or pull off a major upset against the Thunderbirds or Fever to get to six wins (24 points).
Six wins might be enough to help them finish in fourth place. But right now, it is looking challenging, especially with the current percentage gap of 9.5 between them and the Lightning.
The Mavericks are still alive in the finals raceGIANTS (12pts, 87.1%)
Current ladder position: 7th
To come:
Adelaide Thunderbirds (Home)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Away)
West Coast Fever (Away)
Melbourne Mavericks (Home)
NSW Swifts (Home)
The GIANTS welcomed back Jamie-Lee Price and Jo Harten with glee, as they made it three wins from their last five matches on Sunday, knocking off the Firebirds by four goals.
Not only did it take Julie Fitzgerald’s side off the bottom of the ladder, but it also kept their hopes, albeit slim, of returning to the finals alive.
If we take six wins as the bare minimum required to make finals in 2024, the GIANTS will need to find a way to win at least one of their next three fixtures, before they finish with two winnable games against the Mavericks and the Swifts.
Unfortunately for fans of the orange team, their next three games are tough.
They will come up against the reigning premiers, a ruthless Fever (away from home) and a Lightning side that are starting to get their act together.
Queensland Firebirds (8pts, 89.8%)
Current ladder position: 8th
To come:
Melbourne Mavericks (Away)
West Coast Fever (Home)
NSW Swifts (Away)
Sunshine Coast Lightning (Home)
Melbourne Vixens (Home)
The Suncorp Super Netball supercomputer still has the Queensland Firebirds as a 3% chance of making the finals in 2024, but it's looking unlikely for Bec Bulley's troops this season.
Even if they had found a way to win on Sunday against the GIANTS the Firebirds would still be pushing the proverbial uphill to make the final four, with games against the Fever, Lightning, and Vixens to come, along with two away games against the Mavericks and the Swifts.
Predicted Ladder
1. Adelaide Thunderbirds – 44 points, 118.3 %
2. West Coast Fever – 44 points, 113%
3. Melbourne Vixens – 44 points, 111.3%
4. Sunshine Coast Lightning – 28 points, 101.9%
5. Melbourne Mavericks – 24 points, 93.2%
6. NSW Swifts – 16 points, 90.5%
7. GIANTS Netball – 16 points, 87.9%
8. Queensland Firebirds – 8 points, 87.7%
Predicted first week of finals
Major Semi Final
Adelaide Thunderbirds v West Coast Fever
Minor Semi Final
Melbourne Vixens v Sunshine Coast Lightning
