Stats Insider: Is Home Court Advantage Worth It?

Does a team gain strength from their supporters in the last quarter, willing them over the line?

In Suncorp Super Netball this season, the statistics definitely point to their being an advantage – albeit only a slight one – when teams are playing in front of their own supporters.

Heavy Home Advantage

So far in 2018 there have been 18 home wins and six away wins (for a 75% home win rate). Three of those away wins have been Thunderbirds home games, however, so if we remove the three Thunderbirds home games, there have only been three away wins from 21 games, giving a huge home win percentage of 86%.

Whilst the actual match result heavily favours the home team, breaking it up by quarters isn’t as damning for the visiting side.

After six rounds the third quarter – often referred to as the “premiership quarter – is actually in favour of the away team, with 12 away wins compared to 11 home wins.

But with the game in the balance and heading towards its final conclusion the home team has a clear advantage, with 13 wins compared to 10 wins for the away team.

When Does It Count?

In terms of goals scored per quarter, the home team has an advantage in the second and fourth quarters by 1.2 goals, while overall the home team wins the match – on average – 58.6 to 57.0 for a 1.6-goal advantage.

Considering we are dealing with such small winning margins, if the home team can ride their home court support, on most occasions that team will emerge on top. Based on this, it’s clear that home supporters have a very important role to play come gameday.

First-Half Flyers

Looking at each team’s quarter-by-quarter and half-by-half breakdown tells some interesting stories.

The Fever are the most damaging team in the first half with a goal differential of +21. The next best are the Firebirds with +12. The Firebirds aren’t great starters at home with a -3 goal differential but they come out firing in the second quarter with a goal differential of +15. That’s an 18-goal turnaround.

The Swifts also start slowly at home with a -6 goal differential but they have a positive goal differential of +8 in second quarter, equating to a 14-goal turnaround.

The Vixens, on the other hand, start well with +7 but then drop off considerably, with an even differential in the second quarter.

Who Brings It In The Second Half?

The Magpies with +17, Lightning with +13 and the Swifts with +12 are the most impressive second half performers.

A chink in the Fever’s impressive 2018 armour is that they aren’t as devastating in the second half. They only have a positive goal differential of +1. Half-time isn’t good for them, as they have a third quarter goal differential of -3.

Vixens Struggle At Home

Six out of the eight teams are performing well on their home court, all with double-figure goal differential. However the Thunderbirds’ tough start to the season isn’t made any easier playing at home, but a surprising story is that last season’s minor premiers the Melbourne Vixens do not have a home court advantage after three home games.

The Vixens’ total breakdown across the entire game is only a -1 goal differential but their second half must be a real concern. Whilst most teams build their momentum during a game, the Vixens fall away considerably.

The Lightning and the Magpies are the only two teams to have a positive goal differential in every quarter. The third quarter is the Lightning’s best quarter with +9 and the Magpies’ fourth quarter has the highest positive differential out of any team for any quarter with +16, which is distributed almost evenly across their home games.